No Easy Way Out

As hundreds of Thai troops and armored vehicles launched a crackdown on the anti-government protesters in Bangkok, I guess things have finally reached the point of no return. Starting on Wednesday morning, troops entered the protest site and start tearing down barricades to remove the remaining 5,000 “Red Shirts” protesters.

As it had been the case so far, the current Thai government had once again underestimated the “Red Shirts”. Making a mockery of the government’s containment strategy, “Red Shirts” protesters traveled on motorbikes and set various buildings on fire. Key government buildings and pro-government media buildings were the targets as casualties amount for the “Red Shirts”.

Worse, even government buildings outside Bangkok were targeted as some provincial government structures outside of the capital were also attacked. Despite the Thai government’s insistence that they will be in control of the situation soon, I just don’t find that very likely.

The big problem is that there is no viable political solution available. Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva cannot meet the “Red Shirt’s” demands of immediate elections because…well, he will lose. He never won an election, coming to power on the back of a very controversial parliamentary vote in 2006 that ousted the previous government. The ouster was done with military support and if there is an election, Abhisit will lose and that’s before the clashes with the “Red Shirts”. After the clashes and the crackdown, the chances of fresh election are even more remote as Abhisit will not only lose now, but will probably get slaughtered at the polls.

Even if he wants to call fresh elections, Abhisit most probably can’t as the Bangkok elite that support him and put him in power will not allow it. They will probably also know that any elections will be won by the rural “Red Shirts”. Mistakes have been made by both sides in this conflict and I’m afraid the mistakes has piled up to such an extent that there’s no longer an easy way out for anyone.