Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Russia Or Turkey?

What would NATO do if Turkey was the one who made the mistake? I have to ask that because right now the evidence is showing that this was what happened when a Russian fight jet was drown by an air-to-air missile fired by a Turkish F-16.

Turkey claimed that the Russian Sukhoi flew over Turkish territory but note the Turk's very careful statement. They say the Russian jet "flew over" Turkish territory, not that the jet was over Turkey when it was shot down. Russian President Vladimir Putin insists that the aircraft was not in Turkish airspace and was actually shot down over Syrian territory.

The problem for NATO is that he is right!

The Russian jet was 1 km in Syria when it was shot down and it's crash site was 4 km from the border. In fact, according to Ankara's own radar map, the Russian Sukhoi could at best be described as "crossing" over Turkish territory. Analysts has already weighted in saying the Russian jet flew over a small piece of Turkey that projects into Syria and this small piece of real estate would have taken the Russian jet only moments to fly over. Some even went as far as to say it would have taken less then 5 mins for the Russian jet to exit Turkish airspace after entering it.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not known to make empty threats and he had all but promise consequences for this "stab in the back" committed by "accomplices of terrorists". So I have to ask what does NATO do now because when it comes to fighting ISIS, the Russian have a much bigger role to play than Turkey? The Turks may be in NATO but they are far more interested in ousting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad than destroying ISIS. Last I checked, the recent Paris attacks were conducted not by Assad but by ISIS.

So NATO need to decide what is more important; getting rid of Assad or ISIS, because the downing of the Russian jet has crystallized the question for them. They need to pick a side between these 2 and tell both Turkey and Russia their position. Preferably, they will do it soon before Moscow decide on what form of retaliation to take against Turkey.

If NATO wait till then, it may be too late for everyone and the only winner in that scenario will be ISIS.

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