Monday, November 12, 2012

More Spillage To Come

The conflict in Syria once again threaten to spill over to its neighbors as Israeli forces confirmed that they fired “warning shots” into Syria after a mortar round fired from Syria hit an Israeli post in the Golan Heights.

This is the third time in 2 weeks when the Syrian civil war is going to spill over. The Israeli army has reported that three Syrian tanks entered the demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights to chase after rebel fighters in the area last week. Separately Syrian rebel forces had surrounded a government town in northern Syria, forcing the town citizens to escape into Turkey.

Although no one is saying who shot the mortar into Israel in the latest incident, the fact that no one has accused the Syrian government of doing it so far lead me to conclude it was them. It was the rebels who shot the mortar into Israel. If you are one of those wondering why they would be so, the answer is simple.

It makes tactical sense.

Despite all the talk on Western networks, the simple fact is that the Syrian army is winning. They have the upper hand in the conflict and there had been no major defections in the army. Things are so bad for the rebels their Saudi and Western backers had to rush heavy arms to them to maintain the rebellion. So what would you do if you are the rebels?

You spread the conflict out as wide as possible in the hope of getting active allies against the Syrian government. That’s why months after the conflict first started, now you have “spillage” into Turkey and Israel. It makes perfect sense especially if you are the rebels. In short, expect more “spillage” in the coming days. 

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