Less than a day after former Member of Paliment, Michael Palmer, resigned from his seat in the Punggol East-Pasir Ris constituency, and already various political parties are setting their sights on the vacant seat. Most analysts seem to think that when the by-election is called, the opposition Workers' Party (WP), not the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), will be hot favourites to take the seat.
Frankly I think the PAP will retain the seat. There are various reasons for my thinking. First off, Michael Palmer’s sudden resignation is due to him having an affair. Like I said yesterday, most Singaporeans couldn’t care less about that. Second, geography is against the WP. The Punggol East-Pasir Ris seat is not really near the Hougang stronghold of the WP. And lastly, I don’t understand why everyone is assuming the WP will be the only opposition party contesting the seat?
Palmer won the seat by winning 60% of the vote in the constituency and that’s about in line with the general results of the General Election. However, it was a 3-way fight then. I fail to see why it would be any different this time round. In fact, as it will be a by-election, chances are there will be more than 1 opposition party fielding candidates for the seat.
So I think supporters of the opposition should not count their chicken before they hatch. It will still be an uphill task for the opposition to win the seat.