Thursday, December 13, 2012

The Coming By-Election


Less than a day after former Member of Paliment, Michael Palmer, resigned from his seat in the Punggol East-Pasir Ris constituency, and already various political parties are setting their sights on the vacant seat. Most analysts seem to think that when the by-election is called, the opposition Workers' Party (WP), not the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), will be hot favourites to take the seat.

I disagree.

Frankly I think the PAP will retain the seat. There are various reasons for my thinking. First off, Michael Palmer’s sudden resignation is due to him having an affair. Like I said yesterday, most Singaporeans couldn’t care less about that. Second, geography is against the WP. The Punggol East-Pasir Ris seat is not really near the Hougang stronghold of the WP. And lastly, I don’t understand why everyone is assuming the WP will be the only opposition party contesting the seat?

Palmer won the seat by winning 60% of the vote in the constituency and that’s about in line with the general results of the General Election. However, it was a 3-way fight then. I fail to see why it would be any different this time round. In fact, as it will be a by-election, chances are there will be more than 1 opposition party fielding candidates for the seat.

So I think supporters of the opposition should not count their chicken before they hatch. It will still be an uphill task for the opposition to win the seat. 

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Palmer won 54.5% of the vote in the 2011 election, while the WP candidate won 41%. While I agree that the PAP is likely to keep the SMC, there is a chance for the WP to put up a good fight, provided that there is no 3-way fight this time.

Anonymous said...

But that gutless goon cannot make up his mind tot call or not to call for by-election. If he ducks, it shows he is gutless. If he loses the by-election, he is an idiot for letting a seat go to the opposition. If he wins...So what? WP won at Hougang.

Ghost said...

It took about 3 months before the by-election was called in Hougang. The time frame will be about the same here. As for the WP putting up a good fight? I still don't understand why people are assuming the WP will be the opposition contesting the seat. If anything, it make more sense for the WP to let the other opposition parties contest it.

Alan Wan said...

If there is just a 2-way fight, WP has nothing to lose. In fact, WP may enjoy the full force of opposition voters from all the wards combined to give them the much needed moral support. PAP will become the pathetic winner even if they win the BE.

Anonymous said...

Low Thia Kiang,Kenneth Jeyeratnam,Chee Soon Suan the flow of the people is with you.In the last GE 2011 all of you and other opposition parties,I sensed ,had some unity in avoiding a three cornered fight.The citizens of Singapore demand you to cement that bond to save the country from the brink of disaster The citizens of Singapore are prepared to bet on you and that is the only way to bring our country going down the slippery slope.

Anonymous said...

Low Thia Kiang,Kenneth Jeyeratnam,Chee Soon Suan the flow of the people is with you.In the last GE 2011 all of you and other opposition parties,I sensed ,had some unity in avoiding a three cornered fight.The citizens of Singapore demand you to cement that bond to save the country from the brink of disaster The citizens of Singapore are prepared to bet on you and that is the only way to bring our country going down the slippery slope.

Ghost said...

I doubt it will be just a 2-way fight. Opposition politician Benjamin Pwee has already said he intend to contest the seat as an independent so a straight contest is unlikely.

Anonymous said...

>>Most analysts seem to think...not the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), will be hot favourites to take the seat.
I disagree.


Frankly if the PM agrees with you..he've no delay in calling for a by-election

Anonymous said...

Personally WP is a disappointment so far...i prefer SDP to win

Anonymous said...

All the speculation is useless for the Pappies are not going to call for a by-election. It has been decided that Punggol will be absorbed into a GRC in 2016. This is the Pappies way.

Anonymous said...

Like in Hougang by-election, the way to win is to keep pointing out national issues like, housing, transport, foreign employment, medical cost etc.

Anonymous said...

Why would a 3 or more way fight necessarily benefit the PAP?

Unless the previous votes for PAP are solidly hard core, there is the possibility that PAP might flow to other parties.

So for example, if WP (admittedly not my choice party but for argument sake), held on to the 40-something percent, whilst some of the PAP vote goes to other opposition parties, WP could still get in.

In any case, if the existing PAP vote scores are solidly PAP's it does not matter if it restricted to two-way fight because no opposition would win anyway.

It is a myth that a three-or-more way fight advantages the PAP. Look for such a long time, a two-way fight has not help the opposition anyway.

Ghost said...

Read my latest post on why I think the PAP should hold the be-election ASAP and why they are not doing so.
As for the matter of a 3-corner fight, I think such a scenerio is better for the PAP. The PAP has a core support that is bigger than anything the WP or SDP has. In a 3-corner fight, this core support is important.